نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
نویسندگان
1 دانشیار مدیریت ورزشی، دانشگاه تبریز
2 استادیار مدیریت ورزشی، دانشگاه تبریز
3 دانشجوی دکتری مدیریت ورزشی، دانشگاه تبریز
چکیده
هدف از پژوهش حاضر، مطالعه و تبیین مدل آرما برای واردات کالاهای ورزشی به ایران طی 20 سال بود. این پژوهش از نظر هدف، کاربردی بوده و از نوع مطالعات اسنادی ـ تحلیلی می‌‌باشد. برای مدل‌سازی واردات کالاهای ورزشی ایران از اطلاعات سری زمانی بانک مرکزی و گمرک مرکزی جمهوری اسلامی ایران طی سال‌های 1391ـ1371 استفاده گردید. جهت انجام پژوهش، برازش مدل‌های مختلف خودتوضیح میانگین متحرک بررسی گشت و در‌نهایت، مدل آرما به‌عنوان الگوی بهینۀ نهایی برای واردات کالاهای ورزشی انتخاب گردید. نتایج نشان می‌دهد که تمام ضرایب وقفه‌های خودهم‌بسته و میانگین متحرک، معنادار است و 91 درصد از تغییرات واردات کالاهای ورزشی توسط متغیرهای توضیحی تبیین می‌گردد. براساس یافته‌ها دریافت می‌شود که متغیر واردات، پایا است؛ بدین‌معنا که واردکردن هرگونه شوک یا سیاست دولتی که موجب تغییر میزان واردات شود، کوتاه‌مدت بوده و تغییرات آن دائمی نمی‌باشد و با گذشت دوره‌های متمادی، اثر این شوک به‌تدریج از میان رفته و میزان واردات به اندازۀ دورۀ زمان پیش از شوک خود برمی‌گردد؛ بنابراین، اتخاذ هرگونه سیاست پولی و مالی بر واردات کالاهای ورزشی ایران اثرگذار نخواهد بود.
کلیدواژه‌ها
عنوان مقاله [English]
Modeling of Sports Goods Imports into Iran with ARMA Model (1992–2012)
نویسندگان [English]
- Fariba Askarian 1
- Mohammad Rasoul Khodadadi 2
- Roghayeh Sarlab 3
1 Associate Professor of Sport Management, University of Tabriz
2 Assistant Professor of Sport Management, University of Tabriz
3 Ph.D. Student of Sport Management, University of Tabriz
چکیده [English]
The purpose of this research was to employ ARMA model for studying and explaining the imports of sports goods in over 20 years. This study was practical in terms of purpose, and analytic-documental in terms of research type. Time series data of the Central Bank and Customs of the Islamic Republic of Iran during the years 1391–1371 were used. Fitness of autoregressive models of moving average of the research group was investigated and, eventually, ARMA was chosen as the optimum model for the importing of sporting goods. The results showed that all coefficients of autocorrelation lag were significant in (AR) and moving average (MA). Ninety-one percent of sporting goods imports was explained by changes in the autoregressive variables. The imports variable was stationary; that is, entering any shock to imports or implementing government policies that change the imports will have only short-term effects on the volume of imports, and the volume will be gradually restored to pre-shock levels. Therefore, the adoption of fiscal and monetary policy will not work out for Iran's import of sporting goods.
کلیدواژه‌ها [English]
- Import
- Industry Sports
- Sporting Goods
- ARMA Model
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