Sport Management Studies

Modeling of Sports Goods Imports into Iran with ARMA Model (1992–2012)

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

1 Associate Professor of Sport Management, University of Tabriz

2 Assistant Professor of Sport Management, University of Tabriz

3 Ph.D. Student of Sport Management, University of Tabriz

Abstract
The purpose of this research was to employ ARMA model for studying and explaining the imports of sports goods in over 20 years. This study was practical in terms of purpose, and analytic-documental in terms of research type. Time series data of the Central Bank and Customs of the Islamic Republic of Iran during the years 1391–1371 were used. Fitness of autoregressive models of moving average of the research group was investigated and, eventually, ARMA was chosen as the optimum model for the importing of sporting goods. The results showed that all coefficients of autocorrelation lag were significant in (AR) and moving average (MA). Ninety-one percent of sporting goods imports was explained by changes in the autoregressive variables. The imports variable was stationary; that is, entering any shock to imports or implementing government policies that change the imports will have only short-term effects on the volume of imports, and the volume will be gradually restored to pre-shock levels. Therefore, the adoption of fiscal and monetary policy will not work out for Iran's import of sporting goods.

Keywords

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Sport Management Studies
Volume 9, Issue 41
May and June 2017
Pages 97-110

  • Receive Date 28 June 2015
  • Revise Date 20 July 2016
  • Accept Date 03 August 2016

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