Extended Abstract
Background and Purpose
Sports start-ups have emerged as an important pillar of innovation and entrepreneurial development within the sports industry; however, the growing number of failed ventures indicates the presence of deep-rooted structural and managerial challenges. Many sports start-ups struggle to survive due to the absence of professional managerial practices, inadequate branding strategies, financial instability, and limited understanding of market dynamics. Given the inherently uncertain and competitive nature of the sports ecosystem, adopting a futures studies approach provides a valuable lens for identifying the systemic drivers that contribute to vulnerability in these businesses. Accordingly, the present study aimed to systematically identify the key damaging factors affecting sports start-ups in Iran and to analyze the dynamic interactions among these variables through cross-impact analysis. The purpose was to uncover the structure of interrelated challenges and provide insights that support strategic, future-oriented decision-making.
Methods
This study employed a mixed-methods design consisting of qualitative exploration followed by quantitative systemic analysis. In the qualitative phase, semi-structured interviews were conducted with nineteen experts, including university faculty members specializing in sport management, doctoral students studying sport entrepreneurship, founders of active sports start-ups, and individuals with unsuccessful entrepreneurial experiences. Content analysis was used to extract sixty-three initial indicators, which were subsequently refined and categorized into forty-seven key indicators across eight major dimensions.
In the quantitative phase, an 8×8 cross-impact matrix was constructed to examine the mutual influence and dependence among the identified variables. MICMAC software was applied to analyze direct and indirect impact patterns, classify variables based on their strategic roles, and map the influence-dependence structure of the system. Through this method, factors were positioned within key systemic categories—drivers, dependent variables, linkage variables, and autonomous elements—enabling a comprehensive understanding of how each contributes to the vulnerability of sports start-ups.
Results
The results revealed a dense and interconnected network of relationships among the factors influencing the sustainability of sports start-ups. Three dimensions emerged as the strongest and most influential drivers of systemic vulnerability: lack of professionalism, branding deficiencies, and financial challenges. Lack of professionalism proved to be the most dominant variable, encompassing weaknesses such as the absence of a coherent business model, inadequate strategic planning, incomplete competitor analysis, limited networking capacities, improper consultation, and insufficient understanding of regulatory frameworks. These shortcomings not only directly weaken operational performance but also indirectly trigger other forms of dysfunction, including customer dissatisfaction, ineffective resource allocation, and poor market positioning.
Branding deficiencies appeared as another central factor and were characterized by the absence of clear branding strategies, weak identity formation, low product quality, limited innovation, and an inability to create perceived value for the target market. The analysis showed that branding occupies a sensitive systemic position, as it strongly influences marketing, customer engagement, and growth potential, while simultaneously being affected by managerial, organizational, and human-resource shortcomings. Financial challenges represented the third major driver. Limited access to capital, inability to attract investors, insufficient budgets for product development and marketing, and the lack of formal support structures consistently emerged as critical barriers.
MICMAC analysis demonstrated that financial challenge's function both as outcomes of deeper structural weaknesses and as amplifiers of those weaknesses, creating feedback loops that exacerbate vulnerability. Additional findings indicated that marketing-related issues, human-resource weaknesses, and customer-related problems serve as secondary contributors to systemic deterioration. Although they do not function as principal drivers, their interactions with the three core variables significantly increase the probability of failure. Individual-level factors—such as low motivation, lack of experience, fatigue, and impulsivity—appeared as contextual issues that, while not highly influential within the systemic model, have the potential to undermine team performance and stability.
Conclusion
The study concludes that the key vulnerabilities of sports start-ups in Iran arise primarily from internal structural deficiencies rather than external market pressures. The interconnected effects of lack of professionalism, branding deficiencies, and financial challenges form the core of the systemic problems that hinder long-term sustainability. Addressing these factors through professional capacity-building, strategic branding development, improved financial support mechanisms, and enhanced digital marketing can significantly reduce the likelihood of failure. By mapping the influence-dependence patterns of damaging factors, this research provides a future-oriented framework for managers, policymakers, and entrepreneurs seeking to strengthen the resilience and competitiveness of sports start-ups.
Article Message
The overarching message of this study is that success in sports start-ups does not depend solely on innovative ideas. Rather, it requires professional managerial structures, strong branding foundations, financial stability, and a strategic, future-oriented mindset. Without these fundamental components, even promising start-ups are unlikely to withstand environmental challenges or achieve sustainable growth.
Ethical Considerations
All ethical guidelines were observed throughout the study. Participation in the interviews was voluntary, informed consent was obtained prior to data collection, and the confidentiality and anonymity of all participants were fully ensured. The data were used exclusively for research purposes and no identifying information was disclosed.
Authors' Contributions
All authors contributed equally to the conception and design of the study, data collection, analysis and interpretation of findings, drafting of the manuscript, and final approval of the submitted version. Each author accepts responsibility for the accuracy and integrity of the work.
Conflict of Interest
The authors declare that there is no conflict of interest, whether financial, institutional, or personal, related to the execution or publication of this study.
Acknowledgments
The authors express their sincere appreciation to the experts, managers, entrepreneurs, and academic colleagues who generously shared their experiences and insights. Their contributions were essential to the completion of this research. Appreciation is also extended to the academic institutions that supported the implementation of this study.