Background and Purpose
In today’s rapidly evolving world, characterized by continuous technological advancements and dynamic environmental changes, the accuracy of predictions across various fields has diminished significantly (Khaki et al., 2023). While information technology has enhanced access to vast amounts of data, paradoxically, it has also increased the uncertainty faced by organizations and industries (Habegger, 2010). This phenomenon is particularly pronounced in the sports sector, where the dynamic nature of the field introduces a high degree of unpredictability and complexity (Nazari & Shahouli, 2022).
Sports startups, which prioritize innovation, agility, and flexibility, are especially vulnerable to environmental and economic uncertainties. By definition, startups are temporary organizations designed to search for scalable and profitable business models. However, due to limited resources, experience, and exposure to volatile markets, startups face a high risk of failure (Blank & Dorf, 2022). To survive and thrive amidst these challenges, sports startups must adopt foresight strategies that enable them to anticipate and adapt to future uncertainties effectively.
Identifying the key uncertainties that will shape the future of sports startups is critical for their strategic planning and long-term success. This study aims to identify and analyze the most significant uncertainties impacting sports startups in Iran, projecting their influence up to the year 2035. By doing so, the research seeks to provide actionable insights for entrepreneurs, investors, and policymakers involved in the sports startup ecosystem.
 
Methods
This research employs a mixed-methods approach, integrating qualitative and quantitative techniques to provide a comprehensive foresight analysis. The study is divided into two main phases:
Qualitative Phase: Content analysis was utilized to identify and extract factors influencing the future of sports startups. Participants included sports startup owners and key stakeholders selected through purposive sampling. Data collection continued until theoretical saturation was achieved, resulting in 15 in-depth interviews. The qualitative data provided a rich foundation for understanding the contextual and environmental factors affecting sports startups.
Quantitative Phase: Following the qualitative analysis, the fuzzy Delphi method was employed to evaluate and prioritize the identified factors. Experts and university professors with relevant expertise were purposively selected, with 10 participants contributing to this phase. Data collection involved structured questionnaires and a comprehensive 36×36 influence matrix. The MICMAC (Matrix of Cross-Impact Multiplications Applied to Classification) structural analysis method was applied to analyze the relationships among factors and to classify them based on their influence and dependence.
To ensure the validity and reliability of the qualitative findings, participant feedback was incorporated, and open and focused coding methods were rigorously applied. The fuzzy Delphi technique further validated the content and reliability of the quantitative instruments.
Results
The study engaged a total of 25 participants, including sports startup owners, stakeholders, experts, and university professors. Demographically, 72% of participants were male, 56% held a master’s degree, and 36% had between five and ten years of professional experience in the sports startup domain.
Through open and focused coding of qualitative data, 41 key factors were identified and categorized into eight thematic dimensions. The subsequent structural analysis of these factors, using the 36×36 influence matrix, revealed a complex network of 1,232 influence relationships. Among these, 64 relationships had no impact, 451 were low impact, 690 moderate impact, and 91 high impacts.
The MICMAC analysis highlighted several factors with the greatest influence on the future of sports startups:
·       Economic Sanctions: Recognized as a critical external constraint, sanctions affect access to resources, international partnerships, and market expansion.
·       Changes in Consumer Demand: Shifts in consumer preferences and behaviors directly impact product development and marketing strategies.
·       Quality and Safety Standards: Compliance with evolving standards influences market acceptance and regulatory approval.
·       Increased Use of Social Media Platforms: Digital engagement channels are pivotal for customer acquisition, brand building, and community development.
Other influential variables identified include global market interactions and evolving sports consumption patterns, which shape competitive dynamics and innovation trajectories.
Ultimately, the study distilled four key uncertainties that will most significantly affect the sports startup ecosystem:
Growth of the Sports Equipment Industry: Driven by rising health awareness and demand for quality products.
Private Sector Investment: Influenced by market growth and investor confidence.
Adoption of New Technologies: Including sensors, digital platforms, and data analytics to enhance sports experiences.
Increased Competition in the Sports Market: Resulting from both domestic and international players entering the sector.
 
 
 
Discussion
The findings underscore the multifaceted challenges and opportunities confronting sports startups in Iran. The interplay of economic, technological, and market factors creates a complex environment requiring strategic foresight and agility.
Economic sanctions represent a significant barrier, limiting access to capital, technology, and international collaboration. However, the growing domestic demand for sports equipment and services offers a promising avenue for startups to innovate and capture market share.
Consumer behavior is rapidly evolving, with Generation Z and millennials demanding personalized, technology-enhanced sports experiences. Social media platforms have become essential tools for startups to engage these audiences, build communities, and generate brand loyalty.
 
Conclusion
This research identifies four primary uncertainties shaping the future of sports startups in Iran: the expansion of the sports equipment industry, private sector investment dynamics, technological adoption in sports experiences, and increasing market competition. These factors collectively define potential future scenarios and strategic pathways for startups.
The study highlights the critical need for startups to develop foresight capabilities, embrace innovation, and foster strong investor relations to navigate the uncertain landscape successfully. Policymakers and industry stakeholders should focus on creating supportive ecosystems that mitigate the impact of sanctions, encourage investment, and facilitate technology integration.
By addressing these uncertainties proactively, sports startups can enhance their resilience, competitiveness, and contribution to the broader sports economy. 
Article Message
To succeed in a competitive market, startups must continuously innovate and provide added value to customers. Market analysis and attention to customer needs are key factors in this regard. Also, creating a strong brand and focusing on the quality of products and services can help reduce the negative effects of increased competition.
Ethical Considerations
All procedures performed in this study were in accordance with the ethical standards of academic research. Informed consent was obtained from all participants involved in the original studies included in this Research. Participants’ privacy and confidentiality were strictly maintained.
Authors’ Contributions
Conceptualization: First Author
 Data Collection: All Authors
 Data Analysis: All Authors
 Manuscript Writing: All Authors
 Review and Editing: All Authors
 Responsible for funding: Not applicable
 Literature Review: All Authors
 Project Manager: Second Author
 Any other Contributions: None declared
Conflict of Interest
The authors declare no conflict of interest regarding the publication of this article.
 
Acknowledgments
We would like to thank all the startup activists, experts, and sports managers who helped the researchers conduct this research.