آینده‌پژوهی منابع انسانی در صنعت ورزش ایران در افق 1410

Background and Purpose
Sports, as a complex social phenomenon, have garnered increasing attention from researchers and governments worldwide in recent years. The sports industry is a rapidly growing and extensive sector, with its global economic value reaching approximately 600 billion dollars. This immense value underscores the significant role that sports businesses in both the service and industrial sectors play in contributing to the sustainable development of sports (1). The sports industry is one of the most important and attractive industries globally, with its products facing intense competition on the international stage (2). Sports represent a long-term investment, ensuring growth and development over time (3).
For instance, the United States boasts a sports industry valued at around 152 billion dollars, ranking it among the top ten industries nationally. This sector has experienced a 50% growth rate, generating approximately 4 million indirect jobs and directly employing 24,000 people (4). Such figures highlight the high growth potential of the sports industry compared to other sectors.
In contrast, Iran’s sports industry remains heavily dependent on government support, which has created a unique set of challenges. This dependence necessitates the collaboration of researchers, experts, and experienced professional managers to study and analyze the complexity of the Iranian sports market. Given the vast financial flows and the large workforce involved, scientific and effective management is essential to optimize outcomes and foster sustainable growth (5).
Materials and Methods
This research adopts a mixed methodology, combining quantitative and qualitative approaches within an applied research framework. The study utilizes a scenario-based programming model, specifically the expert model, which is one of the most traditional and widely accepted approaches to scenario writing. This model begins with problem identification and component recognition through three rounds of Delphi surveys and culminates in analyzing driving forces and uncertainties, compiling and describing scenarios, and recommending strategic options.
Each scenario represents a plausible description of future developments based on current trends and events. The scenario creation process integrates quantitative, qualitative, and participatory methods, relying on expert opinions and objective data.
Data collection involved a mixed methodology combining quantitative techniques such as cross-sectional questionnaire analysis, MICMAC software for structural analysis, and Scenario Wizard software for scenario development, alongside qualitative methods including expert panels and interviews.
The statistical population comprised experts in the sports industry, including professors and researchers with at least two published works or research projects in the field, as well as managers from selected sports organizations such as the National Olympic Committee, sports federations, and the Ministry of Sports and Youth. All participants held doctoral degrees or were doctoral candidates and had over five years of management experience. These experts participated in three rounds of Delphi surveys.
 
Findings
In the first Delphi round, twenty expert panel members participated in open and face-to-face interviews. They identified 148 factors influencing the future of human resources in Iran’s sports industry. These factors were categorized into six groups based on the PESTEL framework: political, economic, social, technological, environmental, and legal.
The second Delphi round involved experts scoring the impact of each of the 148 factors on the future of human resources in the sports industry on a scale from 1 to 100. In the third round, participants reviewed aggregated responses and majority opinions from the previous round and were asked to confirm or revise their assessments, leading to consensus on the most impactful factors.
The study’s findings are presented in two parts. The first part involves the identification and classification of key components, drivers, and related uncertainties. Five major drivers were determined within the technological, economic, legal, environmental, social, and political domains. The relationships between these components were analyzed for their influence and effectiveness.
The second part of the findings describes possible and compatible future scenarios based on the identified drivers and uncertainties. Given the critical importance of human resources in both quantitative and qualitative development within the sports industry, the research outcomes provide a foundation for empowerment and strategic planning aimed at improving human resource performance.
 
Discussion
The study identifies the major determinants influencing investment and growth in the sports sector by assessing their impact on economic growth. The research highlights that the sports industry significantly affects national economic, social, and political indicators. Preparing for future developments in sports requires adopting a global mindset, recognizing that sports, like other industries, operate within an increasingly interconnected and competitive international environment (Nouri Khan Yordi, 2019).
The findings emphasize the immense potential of sports for national development and economic enhancement. Clausen et al. (2018) argue that sports organizations must adapt to complex and competitive environments by professionalizing, commercializing, and leveraging emerging opportunities. Public sports, or sports for all, play a vital role in societal health and vitality. Promoting public sports fosters community engagement, personal well-being, and social cohesion, which can contribute to reducing crime rates and enhancing social capital.
The robust theoretical model developed in this study for identifying investment drivers in Iran’s sports industry can guide policymakers and stakeholders in attracting greater investment from various sectors. Implementing the model’s insights can mobilize financial resources and stimulate sustainable growth in national sports. These findings align with previous research by Abdulsalehi et al. (2021) and Jamshidi et al. (2013), which underscore the importance of promoting public sports as a means of infrastructure expansion, job creation, health improvement, and medical cost reduction.
 
Conclusion
This research provides a comprehensive foresight study of human resources in Iran’s sports industry, projecting to the year 1410 in the Iranian calendar. It categorizes 148 factors affecting the future of human resources into six PESTEL groups and distills them into 31 primary factors deemed most influential by experts.
Among the key insights is the critical role of green human resource management, which aligns employee behaviors with environmental objectives. By fostering environmentally responsible practices in the workplace, sports organizations can significantly mitigate negative impacts on natural and built environments.
The study acknowledges certain limitations, including challenges in coordinating interviews, scarcity of prior scenario planning studies related to sports human resources, and disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.
Overall, the findings offer valuable guidance for strategic planning and empowerment initiatives aimed at enhancing the performance and sustainability of human resources in Iran’s sports industry.