مطالعات مدیریت ورزشی

پیش‌بینی ارزش طول عمر مشتریان ورزشی براساس تکنیک گروهی شبکه عصبی(GMDH)

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 گروه آموزشی تربیت بدنی

2 گروه تربیت بدنی و علوم ورزشی، واحد سنندج، دانشگاه ازاد اسلامی ، سنندج ، ایران

3 دانشیار گروه مدیریت ورزشی، واحد سنندج ، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی ، سنندج، ایران

4 دانشکده مهندسی برق و کامپیوتر، دانشکده‌ فنی، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران

چکیده
پژوهش حاضر به دلیل ارائه روشی نوین برای پیش‌بینی ارزش طول عمر مشتری و کاربرد آن در افزایش سودآوری سازمان‌های ورزشی به لحاظ هدف، کاربردی بوده و از نظر روش گردآوری داده‌ها از نوع میدانی است. در این پژوهش با استفاده از تکنیک دسته‌بندی گروهی داده‌ها در شبکه عصبی به محاسبه و پیش‌بینی ارزش طول عمر مشتریان در باشگاه‌های ورزشی پرداخته‌شده است. حجم نمونه در بخش کیفی با استفاده از روش غیر تصادفی هدفمند، تعداد ۱۸ نفر از خبرگان (اساتید دانشگاهی و مدیران متخصص ورزشی) که در حوزه‌های مرتبط با موضوع تخصص داشتند، شناسایی‌شده و با آن‌ها مصاحبه مستقیم انجام شد و یا از پرسشنامه باز پاسخ استفاده گردید. برای دستیابی به نقطه اشباع، مطالعه میدانی تا زمانی ادامه پیدا کرد که هیچ گواه و مؤلفه جدیدی از داده‌ها حاصل نشد. پس‌ازآن عوامل تحلیل گردیده و ابزار تحقیق ساخته شد. پایایی کلی پرسشنامه 85/0 محاسبه گردید. در بخش کمی جامعه آماری شامل 413 نفر از ورزشکاران زن و مرد که حداقل 6 ماه سابقه فعالیت ورزشی و عضویت در یکی از باشگاه‌های ورزشی واقع در استان‌های غرب و شمال غرب کشور را داشتند، توزیع گردید؛ که به علت پراکندگی و گسترده بودن جامعه موردنظر از روش نمونه‌گیری خوشه‌ای استفاده ‌شد. برای تحلیل داده‌ها، اطلاعات جمعیت شناختی، سابقه ورزشی و 33 متغیر مستقل وارد شبکه شد. همچنین وجود زیرساخت ورزشی، حمایت مالی باشگاه‌ها، رفاه عمومی جامعه، اثربخشی خدمات ورزشی، مدیریت ورزشی هوشمند و مهارت مربی، تأثیر بالایی بر افزایش ارزش طول عمر مشتری دارد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله English

Predicting The Lifetime Value of Sports Customers Based on Neural Network Group Technique (GMDH)

نویسندگان English

  • Mahrokh Rajabi Asli 1
  • Mozhgan khodamoradpoor 2
  • Mozafar Yektayar 3
  • Reshad Hosseini 4
1 Department
2 Department of Physical Education and Sport Sciences, Sanandaj Branch, Islamic Azad University, Sanandaj, Iran
3 Associate Professor of Sport Management, Department,, Sanandaj Branch, Islamic Azad University, Sanandaj, Iran
4 School of ECE, College of Engineering, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran
چکیده English

The present research is practical due to providing a new method for predicting customer lifetime value and application in increasing the profitability of sports organizations, and in terms of the method of data collection, it is field type. In this research, using the GMDH artificial neural network, the lifetime value of customers in sports clubs has been calculated and predicted. The sample size in the qualitative section was identified using a targeted non-random method, 18 experts (university professors and sports managers) who had expertise in the fields related to the subject, and direct interviews were conducted with them or an open-ended questionnaire was used. After that, the factors were analyzed and the research tool was made. The overall reliability of the questionnaire was calculated as 0.85. In the quantitative part, the statistical population includes 413 male and female athletes who have at least 6 months of sports activity and membership in one of the sports clubs located in the western and northwestern provinces of the country . They had, it was distributed; that due to the dispersion and wideness of the target society, the cluster sampling method was used. The results showed that using this method it is possible to predict the value of life span with an accuracy of more than 95%. Also, the existence of sports infrastructure, financial support of clubs, general well-being of society, effectiveness of sports services, smart sports management and the skill of the coach have a high impact on increasing the customer's lifetime value.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

  • Prediction
  • Lifetime Value
  • club Customers
  • GMDH
  • Neural Network
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مطالعات مدیریت ورزشی
دوره 15، شماره 81
آذر و دی 1402
صفحه 265-284

  • تاریخ دریافت 10 مهر 1401
  • تاریخ بازنگری 22 تیر 1402
  • تاریخ پذیرش 18 مرداد 1402

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