تحلیل ساختاری عوامل کلیدی مؤثر بر وضعیت آیندة ورزش سالمندی در ایران

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری مدیریت استراتژیک ورزشی، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی واحد تهران شمال، تهران ایران

2 استادیار مدیریت ورزشی، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی واحد تهران شمال، تهران ایران

3 استادیار جامعه‌شناسی، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی واحد تهران شمال، تهران، ایران

4 پژوهشگر پسا دکتری آینده‌پژوهی، دانشکدة مدیریت، دانشگاه تهران

چکیده

ورزش یکی از موضوعاتی است که بر زندگی سالمندان تأثیر می‌گذارد و نقش مهمی در سلامتی بدنی و روانی آن‌ها دارد. پژوهش حاضر با هدف تحلیل ساختاری عوامل کلیدی مؤثر بر وضعیت ورزش سالمندی در ایران برای افق 20 سال آینده انجام شده است. این پژوهش از لحاظ هدف، کاربردی و از لحاظ روش، توصیفی-تحلیلی از نوع آینده­پژوهی است. داده‌های نظری به روش اسنادی و داده­های تجربی به روش پیمایشی-دلفی جمع‌آوری شده‌اند. جامعة آماری خبرگان و متخصصان صاحب­نظر در حوزة­ ورزش سالمندی بودند که 20 نفر از آن­ها به‌‌صورت نمونه‌گیری هدفمند انتخاب شدند. برای تجزیه ‌و تحلیل اطلاعات به‌دست‌آمده از روش­های دلفی، تحلیل اثرات متقاطع و از نرم‌افزار میک‌مک استفاده ‌شده است. نتایج این پژوهش نشان داد که پراکندگی متغیرهای کلیدی مؤثر بر وضعیت آینده ورزش سالمندی در ایران، سیستمی ناپایدار دارند و از میان 49 عامل بررسی شده، 10 عامل برنامه‌ریزی بلندمدت و متناسب با تغییرات و هرم جمعیتی کشور، توجه بیشتر به جایگاه سالمندان، اختصاص بودجه به ورزش سالمندان، توسعة فرهنگ ورزش سالمندی، وضعیت اقتصادی ایران (تحریم­ها)، الگوگیری از کشورهای موفق در زمینة ورزش سالمندی، حمایت ارگان­های دولتی و خصوصی، برنامه­ریزی و تأمین منابع انسانی برای ورزش سالمندان، ایجاد یک ارگان برای سالمندان و توسعة سازمان­های مردم‌نهاد و شبکه­های حمایت اجتماعی، به ‌عنوان عوامل کلیدی مؤثر بر وضعیت ورزش سالمندی در ایران برای افق 20 سال آینده انتخاب ‌شده‌اند. بخش عمده­ای از این عوامل کلیدی در گروه متغیرهای مستقل و تاثیرگذار قرار داشتند.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Structural Analysis of Key Factors Affecting the Future Status of Elderly Exercise in Iran

نویسندگان [English]

  • Sabiheh Hamdami Khotbesara 1
  • Ali Asghar Doroudian 2
  • Zahra Sadat Moshir Estekhareh 3
  • Ahad Rezayan Ghayehbashi 4
1 Ph.D. Student in Strategic Sports Management, Islamic Azad University, North Tehran Branch
2 Assistant Profssor of Sport Management,Tehran north Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran
3 Assistant Professor, Department of Sociology, Azad University, North Tehran Branch, Tehran, Iran
4 Postdoctoral Researcher in Futures Studies, Faculty of Management, University of Tehran,Iran
چکیده [English]

One of the issues that affect the lives of the elderly is exercise, which plays an important role in the physical and mental health of the elderly. The aim of this study is to analyze the key factors affecting the situation of senior sports in Iran for the next 20 years. This research is applied in terms of purpose, in terms of descriptive-analytical method of futures research. Theoretical data were prepared by documentary method and experimental data by survey-Delphi method. The statistical population is experts and specialists in the field of geriatric sports, 20 of whom have been selected by purposive sampling. Delphi methods, cross-sectional analysis and Mic Mac software were used to analyze the obtained information. The results of this study showed that the distribution of key variables affecting the future status of senior sports in Iran have an unstable system and among the 49 factors studied, 10 long-term planning factors in line with the changes and population pyramid, more attention to the position of the elderly, Elderly sports, development of senior sports culture, Iran's economic situation (sanctions), modeling of successful countries in the field of senior sports, support of public and private bodies, planning and providing human resources for senior sports, creating an organ for the elderly and developing the organization NGOs and social support networks have been selected as key factors influencing the state of senior sports in Iran for the next 20 years. Most of these key factors were in the group of independent and influential variables.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • geriatric exercise
  • elderly population
  • physical and mental health of the elderly
  • key factors affecting the future of geriatric exercise
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