نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
نویسندگان
1 استادیار مدیریت ورزشی، دانشگاه تبریز
2 استادیار اقتصاد، دانشگاه دریانوردی و علوم دریایی چابهار
3 دانشجوی دکتری مدیریت ورزشی، دانشگاه تبریز
4 دانشجوی دکتری علوم اقتصادی، دانشگاه تبریز
چکیده
صادرات و واردات ابزاری مهم برای کشورهای درحال‌توسعه به‌شمار می‌روند تا از این طریق درآمدهای ارزی کسب کنند. هدف اصلی این مقاله، بررسی اثر تحریم‌های اقتصادی بر تجارت دوجانبة ایران با شرکای عمدة تجاری در این صنعت شامل کشورهای چین، ترکیه، فنلاند، عربستان، ژاپن، فرانسه، آذربایجان، روسیه، قزاقستان و قرقیزستان بود و همچنین، بررسی وضعیت اقتصاد ایران در دوران پساتحریم بود. برای بررسی از مدل جاذبه و داده‌های ترکیبی استفاده شد. دادهها براساس اطلاعات بازة زمانی سال‌های 1371 تا 1391 بودند و از گمرک ایران و بانک جهانی گرفته شدند. برایتحلیل دادهها از نرم‌افزار استاتا نسخه 12 استفاده شد. نتایج مطالعه نشان داد کهتولید ناخالص داخلی، متغیرهای مجازی تحریم‌های ضعیف دورة قبل و فعلی و تحریم قوی دورة قبل اثر مثبت بر تراز تجاری داشته‌اند. متغیر جمعیت، نرخ ارز، مسافت و متغیر مجازی تحریم قوی دورة فعلی اثر منفی بر سهم تجارت ایران با شرکای عمدة تجاری داشتند. همچنین، بررسی روند تغییرات سهم تجارت کالا‌های ورزشی ایران با شرکای تجاری‌اش با استفاده از روش ای- گارچ نشان داد که تحریم‌های ضعیف تأثیر بیشتری بر روند تغییرات این سهم داشتند و این تغییرات نامتقارن هستند. به‌عبارتی، تحریم‌های قوی دورة فعلی اثر منفی بر سهم تجارت شرکا داشته‌اند و تحریم‌های ضعیف تأثیر بیشتری بر پیش‌بینی نوسان‌های تجارتی در صنعت موردمطالعه داشته‌اند.
کلیدواژه‌ها
موضوعات
عنوان مقاله [English]
Investigation of Sanctions Effect on Iran's Trade and Major Trading Partners and Trend Forecasting in The Sports Industry
نویسندگان [English]
- Mohammad Rasool Khodadadi 1
- Mehdi Shirafkan 2
- Maryam Farid Fathi 3
- Sara Masoom Zadeh 4
1 Assistant Professor of Sport Management, University of Tabriz
2 Assistant Professor of Economics Sciences, Chabahar Maritime University
3 Ph.D. Student of Sport Management, University of Tabriz
4 Ph.D. Student of Economic Sciences, University of Tabriz
چکیده [English]
Exports and imports are an important tool for developing countries to earn foreign exchange earnings. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the effect of economic sanctions on Iran's trade with major trading partners in the sports industry and countries, including China, Turkey, Finland, Saudi Arabia, Japan, France, Azerbaijan, Russia, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan, and also check the status of the economy Iran is under post-sanctions. In order to assess the gravity model and panel data is used. Countries in the group of countries that have trade relations with Iran are grouped downwards and upwards. Data based on information from the 1999 to 2012 period, and the resources of the Central Customs Data Center is the Islamic Republic of Iran and the World Bank. The results show that GDP, dummy variables prior period and current weak sanctions and prior period of strong sanctions on Iran's trade balance has a positive effect on the course. Population variables, exchange rates, variable distance and dummy variables of strong sanctions the current period's has a negative effect on the share of trade with major trading partners in the sports industry. Although investigation of the share of trade`s share variation in goods sports Iran with its trading partners by using E- GARCH method shows that weak sanctions have a greater impact on the variation of the share of those changes is still asymmetric. In other words, Strong sanctions of the current period have a negative effect on the share of business partnerships, and weak sanctions have a greater impact on the prediction of trade volatility in the industry.
کلیدواژه‌ها [English]
- Sanctions
- Post-Sanctions
- Sports Trade Balance
- Gravity And E- GARCH Methods
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