Document Type : Research Paper


University of Kharazmi


Olympic Games has been the most Important Sport event in the world, and Countries with The long, Medium and Short term Programs try to get the Best Results from many Years Before the Olympic Games. For this Reason, Prediction the Elements Success of Countries In this Tournament is very important. With Regard to the Exploratory nature of this Research, we were used the Gualitative Methods to Determine the most Important Predictive Factors in Success of Countries. First, based on original Studies, the Primary Lists of Indicators were identified. Then, the Semi-Structured Interviews was Conducted With (n=28) Elites that Aware of these Issues. Results showed that, 185 indexes could predict the success of countries in the Olympic Games.  In this analysis, indexes were classified into 5 Elements: political, Economic, social and Cultural, Technology and Sport (PEST+S). Also, using De Bosscher et al’s model (2006), the Components were divided into micro, meso and Macro levels. Sports Politician can use the Identified indicators and Elements in Forthcoming Planning about Olympic Games to be more successful.


1) Admin, A. (2008). Who will win the medals race?­ Retrieved from:­/indias-2008-olympicdreasm.
2) Andreff, M., & Andreff, W. (2010). Economic prediction of medal wins at the 2014 winter Olympics, contemporary issues in sports economics: Participation and professional team sports. Cheltenham: Edward Elgar, Forthcoming, 3(2): 49-62.
3) Andreff, W. (2001). The correlation between economic underdevelopment and sport. European Sport Management Quarterly, 1(4): 251-79.
4) Azizi, B., Mehrabi Koshki, A., & Farahani, J. (2014). Explores the relationship between information technology and organizational structure of the Ministry of Youth and Sports of the Islamic Republic of Iran, sport management, 5(3):161-74. )Persian(
5) Bainvel, S. (2005). Sport and politics: A study of the relationship between international politics and football. 6: 65-78.
6) Bazargan, A. (2009). Introduction to qualitative research methods and integrated, Didar Publications. )Persian(
7) Bernard, A., & Busse, M. (2004). Who wins the Olympic Games? Economic resources and medal totals. Review of Economics and Statistics, 86(1): 413- 7.
8) Bradley, J., & Bowdoin, C. (2013). Creating and testing a production function for Olympic medals. Issues in Political Economy, 22: 7-25.
9) Bulchandani, S. (2012). Technology in sport equipment. Dartmouth Undergraduate Journal of Science, 9: 27-9.
10) Coakley, J. (2009). Sports in society: issues and controversies. In Sports in society: Issues and controversies, 439-70.
11) De Bosscher V., Deknop P., Vanbottenburg M., & Shibli S. (2006). A conceptual framework for analysing ­sports policy factors leading to international sporting success. European Sport Management Quarterly, 6(2): 185-215.
12) De Bosscher V., Deknop P., Vanbottenburg M., Shibli S., & Bingham J. (2009). Explaining international sporting success: An international comparison of elite sport systems and policies in six countries. Sport Management Review, 12: 113–36.
13) Forrest, D., & Sanz, I. (2010). Forecasting national team medal totals at the summer Olympic Games. International Journal of Forecasting, 26: 576–88.
14) Godarzi, M., Asadi, H., Khabiri, m., & Dosti, M. (2013). Politics and Sports, The publication mouj Ghalam, First Edition. (Persian)
15) Green, M. (2007). Olympic glory or grassroots development? Sport policy priorities in Australia, Canada and the UK 1960-2006. International Journal of the History of Sport, 24(7): 921-53.
16) Hilvoord, I., & Elling, A. R. (2010). How to influence national pride? The Olympic medal index as a unifying narrative. ­ International Review for the Sociology of Sport, 45(1): 87–102.
17) Hoffmann, R., & Lee, C. G. (2002). Public policy and Olympic success. Applied Economics Letters, 9: 545-8.
18) Johnson, D. K. N., & Ali, A. (2004). A tale of two seasons: Participation and medal counts at the summer and winter Olympic Games. Social Science Quarterly, 85: 974–93.
19) Kasimati, E., Dawson, P. (2009). Assessing the impact of the 2004 Olympic Games on the Greek economy: A small macro econometric model. Economic Modelling, 26: 139–46.
20) Kavetsos, G., & Szymanski, S. (2010). National well-being and international sports events. Journal of Economic Psychology, 31: 158–71.
21) Larose, K., & Haggerty, T. R. (1996). Factors associated with national Olympic success: An exploratory study. (Unpublished Master dissertation). Universities Brunswick, Canada.
22) Maguire, J. (2008). Real politic or ethically based: Sport, globalization, migration and nation-state policies. Sport in Society, 11: 443-58.
23) Matthews, J. (2010). Twilight struggle: The cold war 1945-1989. Deluxe Edition. Hanford, CA 93232-1308. Retrieved from:
24) Mitton, C., Davies, H., & Donaldson, C. (2004). Olympic medals or long life: What’s the bottom line?­ MJA Journal, 180: 71-3.
25) Moshtaghiyan, S., Etebariyan, A., Namazi zadeh, M., & Afkhami, M. (2014). Study the experience managers and athletes about the reasons for the failure of the 2008 Olympic Games in Beijing in the field of human and financial resources, sports management, 5(3):71-97. (Persian)
26) Rivenburgh, N. (2004). The Olympic Games, media and the challenges of global image making: University lecture on the Olympics [online article]. Barcelona: Centre d’Estudis Olímpics (UAB). International Chair in Olympism (IOC-UAB).
27) Safadi, A. (2008). Arab performance at the games reveals a greater regional shame. Sport in Society, 2: 26-39.
28) Sajjadi, N. (1990). Analysis of the role of mass media at the Olympic Games during the twentieth century, The publication Harakat, 3:39-56. (Persian) 
29) Shafiee, Sh. (2012), Model to predict the success of countries participating in the 2010 Asian Games in Guangzhou, doctoral dissertation, University of Guilan. (Persian)
30) Sobhani, Y., Honari, H., Shahlaei, J., & Ahmadi, A.R. (2014). The relationship between information technology and knowledge management in sports federations, sports management, 17:55-73. (Persian)
31) Song, Ch., Boulier, B. L., & Stekle, H. O. (2007). The comparative accuracy of judgmental and model forecasts of American football games. International Journal of Forecasting, 23­: 405-­13.
32) Sotiriadou, K., & Shilbury, D. (2009). Australian elite athlete development: An organizational perspective. Sport Management Review, 13: 1-12.
33) Tomlinson, R. (2010). Whose accolades? An alternative perspective on motivations for hosting the Olympics. Springer Science + Business Media, 4: 83-96.