Document Type : Research Paper
Author
Assistant Professor of Economics, Department of Economics, Payame Noor University, Tehran
Abstract
Inflation uncertainty is one of the important economic variables which affects macroeconomic variables including growth and production. So, the aim of this research is to study inflation rate uncertainty and its short and long run effects on the sport production during the years 1991-2017. On the other hand, the study population was Iran and we used the ARCH and GARCH model to obtain inflation uncertainty and Johansen Juselius cointegration test to determine the long run relationship among variables. The model was estimated using autoregressive distributed lag method. The eviews 10 was used to analyze data. The results show that inflation uncertainty has a negative small effect on sport production in the short run and a negative larger effect in the long run. In addition, government sport expenditures both in the short run and in the long run have had the most impact on the sport production compared with other variables, consistently with expectations. This shows the high importance of fiscal policy in the sport sector and policy makers should pay more attention to it. The liquidity variable has also had a negative impact on the sport production both in the short run and in the long run with less impact compared with other variables. Household sport expenditures have had significant negative and positive effects on the sport production in the short run and in the long run respectively. Cointegration test results show that there has been a long run equilibrium relationship among variables.
Keywords
- Inflation Rate Uncertainty
- Production
- Sports Industry
- Autoregressive Conditional Variance
- Autoregressive Distributed Lag
Main Subjects
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38. Tobin, J. (1965). Money and economic growth. Econometrica, 33(4), 671-684.
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40. Zamani, M., Hoseyni, S. A., & Rajaei, M. H. (2012). The impact of sport expenditures on gross domestic product in Iran. Journal of Sport Management, 4(15), 143-156. (in Persian).
2. Ajdari, A. A., Heydari, H., & Abdolahi, M. (2017). An examinination on factors determining value-added in Iran’s industry and mine sector in term of Johansen's cointegration model. Journal of Parliament and Strategy, 24(89), 105-32. (in Persian).
3. Apergis, N. (2005). Inflation uncertainty and growth: Evidence from panel data. Australian Economic Papers, 44(2), 186-197.
4. Askarian, F., Faraji Dana, A., Gdarzi, M., & Jafari, A. (2004). Survey the economic situation of Iranian sports industry in years 1998 and 2001. Motion Magazine, 24(24), 25-43. (in Persian).
5. Askarian, F., Ganj Khanloo, J., & Tahmasebi, F. (2019). The effects of private sector investment in sports products manufacturing workshops on Iran's gross domestic product. Sport Management Studies, 11 (54), 51-70. (in Persian).
6. Ball, L. (1992). Why does high inflation raise inflation uncertainty? Journal of Monetary Economics, 29(3), 371-388.
7. Barro, R. J. (2013). Inflation and economic growth. Annals of Economics and Finance, 14(1), 85–109.
8. Bing, F. (2011). Study on development path of Shandong sports industry from the perspective of low-carbon economy. Energy Procedia, 5, 879–883.
9. Blackburn, K. (1999). Can Stabilisation policy reduce long-run growth? The Economic Journal, 109(452), 67-77.
10. Conrada, S., Karanasos, M., & Zeng, N. (2010). The link between macroeconomic performance and variability in the UK. Economics Letters, 3(106), 154-157.
11. Chang-Kyun, K. (1997). The development of Sport of Sports Industry in Korea and their tasks. Paper presented at the 1st Conference on Sport Industry, Country Korea.
12. De Gregorio, J. (1993). Inflation, taxation, and long-run growth. Journal of Monetary Economics, 31(3), 271-298.
13. Eschenfelder, M. J., & Li, M. (2007). Economics of Sport (2nd ed.). Morgantown, WV: Fitness Information Technology.
14. Farnaghi, E. H., Ranous Parivar, O., & Hamid, T. (2014). Inflation, inflation uncertainty and output growth in Iran. Economics and Business, 5(7), 1-14. (in Persian).
15. Gholami, A. I., & Komijani, A. (2010). The relationship between inflation, inflation uncertainty, investment growth and economic growth in Iran. Applied Economics, 1(3), 1-25. (in Persian).
16. Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran (2020). National Accounts of Iran, Available at: https://www.cbi.ir/page/2053.aspx. (in Persian).
17. Iyke, N. B., & Sin-Yu, H. (2019). Inflation, Inflation Uncertainty, and Growth: Evidence from Ghana. Contemporary Economics, 13(2), 1-16.
18. Jalayee, S.A., Bakhshandeh, H., Esmaeili, M., & Rasooli, S. M. (2018). The role of human resources in the economic growth of Iran’s sports industry. Sport Management Studies, 10(46), 67-88. (in Persian).
19. Kalashi, M., Hoseini, S. E., & Rajaei, M. H. (2016). The effect of government and households' sports expenditure to gross domestic product in Iran. Sport Management Studies, 8(38), 165-182. (in Persian).
20. Kalashi, M., Eydi, H., Abbasi, H., & Rajaei, M.H. (2019). Estimated of gross domestic sport product and changes in its components (1996-2015). Sport Management Studies, 11(54), 17-32. (in Persian).
21. Khazaei, A., Honari, H., & Shahlaee Bagheri, J. (2018). Identify the challenges of implementing the resilient economy in the country's sport industry. Sport Management Studies, 10(49), 59- 78. (in Persian).
22. Khodadadi, M. R., Sarlab, M., & Masoom Zadeh, S. (2018). The effect of exchange rate regimes on the flow of commerce sport groups in the Middle East: Spatial econometric approach. Sport Management Studies, 10(48), 17-36. (in Persian).
23. Khodadadi, M. R., Shir Afkan, M., Masoom Zadeh, S., & Farid Fathi, M. (2019). Convergence of export of sporting goods in Iran: Generalized method of moments. Sport Management Studies, 11(53), 17-32. (in Persian).
24. Meek, A. (1997). An estimate of the size and supported economic activity of the sports industry in the United States. Sport Marketing Quarterly, 6(4), 15–21.
25. Mehrara, M., & Mikaeeli, S. V. (2017). Investigating the effect revenues and government sport expenditure on the added value of the sports sector: The approach of autoregressive distributed lag model. Sport Management Studies, 10(46), 15-37. (in Persian).
26. Mehrara, M., Seyed Ghasemi, M. S., & Behzadi Sufiani, M. (2016). The effects of inflation uncertainties and government spending and their interaction on the growth of Iran's economic sectors. Financial Economics, 10(34), 33-58. (in Persian). Mehrara, M., & Mojab, R. (2010). The links between inflation, inflation uncertainty, output and output uncertainty in Iran. Quarterly Money and Economy, 2(2), 1-30. (in Persian).
27. Naderiyan, M., & Ghodousi, N. (2015). Identify bottlenecks in private sector investment in production Sports equipment and equipment. Applied Research in Sport Management, 12(4), 63-73. (in Persian).
28. Nademi, Y., & Zubairi, H. (2016). The effect of oil revenues on the added value of the sub sectors of industry in Iran with the space-mode model. Quarterly Journal of Strategic and Macro Policy, 4(14), 125-152. (in Persian).
29. Ndoricimpa, A. (2017). Threshold effects of inflation on economic growth in Africa: Evidence from a dynamic panel threshold regression approach. African Development Bank Group, 249, 1-38.
30. Rezazadeh, A. I., Khodavardizadeh, S., & Mirzaei, S. (2017). The impact of inflation uncertainty on inflation, investment and economic growth in selected countries member of the organization of the Islamic conference. Strategic and Macro Policies, 5, 49-76.
31. Rostamzadeh, P., Sadeghi, H., Asari, A., & Yavari, K. (2014). The effect of government investment in sports on economic growth in Iran. The Economic Research (Scientific Research Quarterly), 14(4), 177-210. (in Persian).
32. Romer, D. (2017). Macroeconomics (M. S. Khalili Araghi, & A. Souri, Trans.) (4th ed.). Tehran: Publisher: Noor Science.
33. Shahbazi, K., & Akramzadeh, L. (2014). Impact of monetary and financial policies on the value added of the industrial sector in Iran in line with the general policies of the industry. Quarterly Journal of Strategic and Macroeconomic Policies, 2(8), 93-110. (in Persian).
34. Summary of economic developments in the country 2017. (2019). Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Prepared and edited by Office of Economic Studies and Policies. Available at: https://www.cbi.ir/ datedlist/ AnnualReview_fa.aspx, (Accessed March 2019 ). (in Persian).
35. Swedan, O. D. (2004). Does inflation harm economic growth in Jordan? An econometric analysis for the period 1970-2000. Applied Econometrics and Quantitative Studies, 1(2), 41-66.
36. The Washington Economics Group, Inc. (2005). The economic impact of sports and recreation activities in Florida. Coral Gables, Prepared for the Florida Sports Foundation, Inc, 3. Available at: http: //www. scribd.com/doc/ 92104394 /The-Economic-Impact-of-Sports-Recreation-Activities-in-Florida#scribd, January 02, 2014.
37. Tidiane Ndiaye, C. I., & Konte, M. A. (2017). The role of inflation uncertainty on economic growth: The case of the WAEMU. Open Journal of Economics and Finance, 1, 1-11.
38. Tobin, J. (1965). Money and economic growth. Econometrica, 33(4), 671-684.
39. Ungar, M., & Zilberfarb, B. Z. (1993). Inflation and its unpredictability theory and empirical evidence. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 25(4), 709-720.
40. Zamani, M., Hoseyni, S. A., & Rajaei, M. H. (2012). The impact of sport expenditures on gross domestic product in Iran. Journal of Sport Management, 4(15), 143-156. (in Persian).
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