نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استادیار پژوهشگاه تربیت بدنی و علوم ورزشی

2 استادیار دانشگاه خوارزمی

3 استاد دانشگاه تهران

چکیده

بازی­های المپیک، بزرگترین رویداد ورزشی جهان می­باشد و کشورها ­سال­ها قبل از برگزاری مسابقات، با ­برنامه­ریزی­های بلند­مدت، میان­مدت و کوتاه­مدت سعی در به­دست­آوردن بهترین نتایج ­دارند؛ به­همین­دلیل، پیش­بینی مؤلفه­های موفقیت کشورها در این مسابقات از اهمیت زیادی برخوردار است. با عنایت به ماهیت اکتشافی موضوع، از روش پژوهش کیفی به­منظور تعیین مهم­ترین مؤلفه­های پیش­بین بر موفقیت کشورها استفاده گردید. نخست از طریق مطالعات اولیه، فهرست­ مقدماتی شاخص­های موثر شناسایی گردید. سپس مصاحبه­های نیمه ساختار یافته­ با (28(n= از نخبگان آگاه از موضوع پژوهش انجام شد. نتایج نشان می­دهد 185 شاخص می­تواند پیش­بینی­کنندۀ موفقیت کشورها در بازی­های المپیک باشد. علاوه­براین، تحلیل­های انجام­شده شاخص­ها را در 5 مؤلفۀ سیاسی، اقتصادی، اجتماعی و فرهنگی، فناوری و ورزشی (PEST+S) طبقه­بندی می­کند. همچنین، با استفاده از مدل پیشنهادی دی­بوسچر و همکاران (2006) مؤلفه­های مذکور در سه سطح خرد، متوسط و کلان تقسیم­بندی می­شوند. با توجه به یافته­ها، سیاستگذاران ورزش کشورها می­توانند در­ برنامه­ریزی­های آتی خود به­منظور حضور موفق­تر در بازی­های المپیک، از شاخص­ها و مؤلفه­های شناسایی­شده استفاده نمایند.

 

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Predictive Components of Success for Countries Participating in the Olympic Games

نویسندگان [English]

  • Hossein Zareian 1
  • Alireza Elahi 2
  • Seyed Nasrollah Sajjadi 3
  • Mir Hosein Pedram 2

1

2 University of Kharazmi

3

چکیده [English]

Olympic Games has been the most Important Sport event in the world, and Countries with The long, Medium and Short term Programs try to get the Best Results from many Years Before the Olympic Games. For this Reason, Prediction the Elements Success of Countries In this Tournament is very important. With Regard to the Exploratory nature of this Research, we were used the Gualitative Methods to Determine the most Important Predictive Factors in Success of Countries. First, based on original Studies, the Primary Lists of Indicators were identified. Then, the Semi-Structured Interviews was Conducted With (n=28) Elites that Aware of these Issues. Results showed that, 185 indexes could predict the success of countries in the Olympic Games.  In this analysis, indexes were classified into 5 Elements: political, Economic, social and Cultural, Technology and Sport (PEST+S). Also, using De Bosscher et al’s model (2006), the Components were divided into micro, meso and Macro levels. Sports Politician can use the Identified indicators and Elements in Forthcoming Planning about Olympic Games to be more successful.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Success
  • Olympicgames
  • Micro
  • Meso and Macro Levelsl
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